CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-11-11T01:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-11-11T01:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34565/-1
CME Note: Very faint but fast, relatively narrow CME with the fuzzy front that is only relatively clearly seen in STEREO A difference imagery. The source is likely a relatively small filament eruption seen starting around 2024-11-11T00:10Z (as seen in AIA 304/193, SUVI 304/195/284, STA EUVI 195) centered ~N20E25 and stretching from N27E40 to N17E17. Coronal signatures include an ejecta/filament seen erupting in 304 and dimming and post-eruptive arcades seen in 193/195.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-14T03:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-14T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34567/1 Model Inputs: 2024-11-11T01:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=984.0, HalfAngle=15.0, Time21.5=2024-11-11T04:24Z Model Output: Earth Impact (cursory glancing blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-14T00:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-13T08:00Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-13T02:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gifLead Time: 61.47 hour(s)
Difference: 3.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-11-11T14:04Z
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